How to figure your outs in Texas Hold'em
In this article
- What are outs?
- Why do they matter?
- How can I figure my outs?
- Why do you add +1?
- Why do they matter?
- How can I figure my outs?
- Why do you add +1?
What are outs?
In any poker game, your "outs" are the cards that can come out on the table to make you a winning hand. For example, in Texas Hold'em if you are holding 6,7 off suit and the flop is 8, 9, K. you now have an open ended straight draw of 6,7,8,9. In this case, your outs are any 5 or any 10 because those cards will make you a straight.
Why do outs matter?
Outs matter a lot when you're trying to figure out what you should be doing in a hand. If you're holding a weak hand that doesn't have many outs, and someone makes a bet then you should know to fold. However, if you're holding a hand that is weak at the moment, but you have a lot of outs to make a stronger hand, then knowing this can help you to decide whether or not to call a bet. Very simply put, knowing how to figure your outs and percentages is a very basic skill that every poker player should know.
How can I figure my poker outs?
This is actually easier than you think. First of all, when you're figuring your outs, you can't just be considering cards that improve your hand. For example, if you have a hand of 2,3 off suit, you can't be counting 2s and 3s as outs unless you're positive your opponent hasn't paired.
What you should be considering as outs are cards that you believe will make you a winning hand. Just improving your hand doesn't really matter if it isn't enough to win. So, now that we know that we need only consider the cards that will make us a winning hand, how do we translate those numbers into something that makes sense to us.
While there are mathematical formulas to help you figure out your exact odds of hitting a card you need, I'm going to explain a very simple method that can be learned in just a few minutes. First of all, you need to consider all the cards that can help you. If you take my example from before, where you have 5,6 and flop 7,8,K, then you have 8 outs. four 5s and four 10s that can make you a straight. That gives you eight outs. We can take those eight outs and multiply them by two giving us 16, then add 1. That makes a 17% chance to hit one of those cards for each remaining card to come. If we've only seen the flop that means there are two more cards to come and 17 multiplied by two cards left, means we have a 34% chance to make a straight by the end of the hand.
What you should be considering as outs are cards that you believe will make you a winning hand. Just improving your hand doesn't really matter if it isn't enough to win. So, now that we know that we need only consider the cards that will make us a winning hand, how do we translate those numbers into something that makes sense to us.
While there are mathematical formulas to help you figure out your exact odds of hitting a card you need, I'm going to explain a very simple method that can be learned in just a few minutes. First of all, you need to consider all the cards that can help you. If you take my example from before, where you have 5,6 and flop 7,8,K, then you have 8 outs. four 5s and four 10s that can make you a straight. That gives you eight outs. We can take those eight outs and multiply them by two giving us 16, then add 1. That makes a 17% chance to hit one of those cards for each remaining card to come. If we've only seen the flop that means there are two more cards to come and 17 multiplied by two cards left, means we have a 34% chance to make a straight by the end of the hand.
Why do you add +1?
Adding +1 makes allowances to keep the percentage close depending on how many outs you're figuring the equation for. The above formula gets you pretty close to the exact percentage you have of hitting the hand you're looking for without making you take out a calculator to figure it out. No, it doesn't consider what other players may folded, or what cards were burned, but those cards can never be taken into account because we never know what those cards are. Basically, if you don't ever try to figure your outs, then start using the technique explained above and it will definitely help you.
